Type 2 diabetes is a preventable disease, but unless trends change, more than 10% of the population in nearly half the world’s countries will have the disease, according to findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). North Africa/Middle East and Latin America/Caribbean are at risk of becoming super-regions with high diabetes prevalence. “Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge,” the authors conclude. “It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.”
Diabetes prevalence and burden were estimated for 1990 through 2021 in 204 countries and territories across 25 age groups and for males and females separately and combined. GBD trends were projected through 2050. Lost years of healthy life were measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). Deaths from diabetes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach.
“In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6.1% (5.8–6.5),” the author write. “At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9.3% [8.7–9.9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12.3% [11.5–13.0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world’s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76.1% (73.1–79.5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96.0% (95.1–96.8) of diabetes cases and 95.4% (94.9–95.9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52.2% (25.5–71.8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24.3% (18.5–30.4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1.31 billion (1.22–1.39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16.8% (16.1–17.6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11.3% (10.8–11.9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43.6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.”